The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said that India is expected to record normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season (August and September) following excess precipitation in July.
According to the IMD, regions like east-central India, parts of the east and northeast, and most subdivisions along the Himalayas can expect normal to above-normal rainfall. However, below-normal rainfall is anticipated in most parts of peninsular India and the western parts of northwest and central India.
August accounts for around 30% of the precipitation during the monsoon season. Although El Nino, the warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America, has not impacted the monsoon performance so far, its influence is likely to be visible in the second phase (August-September period) of the monsoon, the IMD said.
El Nino is generally associated with weakening monsoon winds and dry weather in India. The IMD had earlier warned that El Nino might affect the second half of the southwest monsoon. “Though the country is expected to experience normal rainfall in August and September, it is likely to be on the lower side (94% to 99%) of the normal (422.8 mm),” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a press conference.
India observed a significant shift in monsoon patterns, transitioning from a 9% rainfall deficit in June to a 13% surplus in July. However, the east and northeast regions experienced the third-lowest precipitation in July since 1901.
Meanwhile, northwest India observed the highest rainfall in July since 2001, measuring 258.6 mm.
